For good or for ill the protracted selection process toward the choice of a President will be over in 90 days. Approximately 30% of the country will rejoice. Approximately 30% of the country will mourn. The other 40% of the country will look forward to Thanksgiving.
With the conventions fading into the past and Labor Day looming, Gildshire takes a look at the campaigns as they are today. Who is winning? By how much? Why?
National polls, as conducted by Gallup, The Wall Street Journal, Rasmussen, and Quinnipiac University show Mrs. Clinton’s lead growing. Her margin, a bare two points (within the poll’s margin of error) going into the convention cycle, has swelled to nine points.
As accurate as polling may be in the internet age, one other measuring stick has proved to be even more precise. Wagering on political elections is illegal in the United States. Other countries don’t have the same restrictions. Since 1982, the betting favorite has prevailed eight out of eight times.
What did the wagering markets have to say a month ago? On July 8, a bettor who placed a $100 wager on Mrs. Clinton would have received $47.62 profit if she were to win. Today, the same bet will net just $31.25 in profit. In terms of percentage that translates to a 67% chance of victory as calculated in July, and a 76% chance of victory as calculated today.
How did this happen, and so quickly? Are the candidates saying anything markedly different from what they have been saying for almost a year?
Not really. But earlier this year the vast majority of the American voting public wasn’t paying any attention. In February, only a relative handful of people were noticing the candidates’ slog from icy Iowa to even icier New Hampshire.
It’s different today. Statements which were heard only by hardcore election enthusiasts are resonating with a public that senses it is time to listen.
Does the preponderance of history mean Hillary Clinton is a shoe-in for the Presidency? Should you empty your 401k and bet on her?
In other years that may be a plan. But not this year. Mrs. Clinton’s popularity numbers are lower than any prohibitive favorite in modern election history. There is still time for her to grate on the nerves of the very voters who are selecting the lesser of two evils. More email malfeasance could be uncovered.
Of course, Mr. Trump may have something to say that will raise eyebrows, as well. This election season hasn’t revealed its last surprise. Believe that!